Nepal: Key Message Update - July rainfall increases rice planting, supporting household income, July 2026 - January 2027
Country: Nepal Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) will most likely persist in areas of Koshi, Madhesh, Lumbini, Karnali, and Sudurpaschim provinces, with an increasing number of households expected to experience outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) across high mountain districts through September as the lean season peaks from July to September . Households are expected to meet their food needs through market purchases with sufficient income until the harvest begins in September. However, below-average income from reduced yarsagumba (Caterpillar fungus) yields is driving an increasing share of the population facing food consumption deficits in the northern mountains. To cope with the income loss, atypically high and early migration to India for labor work is likely to occur immediately following the festival season in mid-November. Food security outcomes are expected to improve countrywide in October as the maize and rice harvests become available. Outcomes aligned with Minimal (IPC Phase 1) are expected to be widespread. However, outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected in the northwestern mountains of Sudurpaschim and Karnali provinces through January 2027 as winter limits livelihood activities and households are unable to meet their non-food needs. The June-September monsoon rainfall is generally average thus far. Delayed onset of rainfall in June was followed by above-average levels in July, with localized below-average rainfall (Koshi, Gandaki, and Lumbini provinces have rainfall deficits of up to 100 millimeters). While the late monsoon arrival delayed rice planting in rainfed areas in June, rainfall in July is sufficient for planting. According to the Department of Agriculture, as of late July, rice planting is nearing completion with over 90 percent of the target, which is above planting levels at the same time last year. The main rice-growing province, Madhesh, has surpassed planting levels as of the same time last year by over 30 percent. The ongoing and generally favorable rice planting season is supporting access to food and income from agricultural labor. While the favorable monsoon in July has supported rice planting, it has also resulted in localized landslides , including along the Karnali Highway in late July . Landslides are typical during the monsoon season; however, they do disrupt the movement of people and goods for a few hours to multiple days. Typically, alternative routes are provided quickly; however, short-term delays in the movement of goods can occur. Overall, the current scale of landslides is typical for the time of year and is not expected to significantly impact the movement of goods and people. In July, food prices remained elevated due to persistently high freight costs increased by the government in April 2026, despite reduced fuel prices. The prices of most major staples in July were similar to those in June. However, rice, wheat flour, beans, and cooking oil prices are 7 to 15 percent higher compared to the five-year average price. On the other hand, red potato prices increased by over 5 percent between June and July; however, they are slightly below the same time last year and the five-year average. The month-on-month increase in red potato prices is associated with the depletion of the winter season harvest and increased reliance on markets for purchases, primarily in the mountain zones. Tea exports to India have resumed, resulting in tea factories restarting operations in Koshi Province and supporting income for laborers and tea growers. According to the Department of Customs , Nepal's annual tea exports to India have declined to 12.57 million metric tons as of mid-July 2026 compared to 15.04 million metric tons in the last fiscal year, which ends in mid-July. Nevertheless, the resumption of trade activities in July is resulting in improvements to tea exports to typical levels, with a total export volume expected at around 1.5 million metric tons for July.
2026-08-11 01:55:36
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