France eyes second chance as Morocco revives interest in French Rafale jets
France eyes second chance as Morocco revives interest in French Rafale jets France is now expected to present a broader offer incorporating industrial cooperation, financing and long-term support. Tuesday 30/06/2026 A crew works around a French Rafale fighter jet at the training centre of Air Base 115 in Orange, France, December 5, 2025. RABAT Morocco is considering reviving a long-frozen deal to acquire French Rafale fighter jets, a move analysts say reflects both mounting regional security concerns and a renewed strategic partnership between Rabat and Paris after years of strained relations. A recent report by defence publication Defensa said discussions over a possible purchase of Dassault Aviation’s Rafale F4.3 fighter have resurfaced nearly two decades after negotiations collapsed in 2007, when Morocco instead opted to buy US-made F-16 aircraft. The report said any renewed negotiations would represent more than a conventional arms deal, describing them as a test of France’s ability to overcome the financing and political shortcomings that doomed its earlier bid. At the time, Paris believed Morocco’s long-standing defence ties with France, particularly the Royal Moroccan Air Force’s operation of Dassault Mirage aircraft, would ensure victory for the Rafale programme. Instead, according to Defensa, the French campaign was undermined by poor coordination between the French procurement agency and Rafale manufacturers, coupled with the absence of a coherent financing package backed by clear credit guarantees. France also mistakenly assumed that Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates would help finance Morocco’s purchase, the report said, leaving room for the United States to secure a deal worth about two billion euros for F-16 fighters. The loss was regarded in Paris as both an industrial and political setback in what had long been considered a reliable French defence market. Since then, France has fundamentally changed its export approach, linking Rafale sales to comprehensive financial packages, political guarantees, technology transfer and closer coordination between the government and industry. According to Defensa, any discussions with Morocco over the Rafale F4.3 in 2026 would amount to “a historical correction” of the failed 2007 negotiations, with France now expected to present a broader offer incorporating industrial cooperation, financing and long-term support. The renewed interest also comes against the backdrop of Algeria’s continuing military modernisation. The report said Algiers was expanding beyond its traditional fleet of Russian Sukhoi fighters by examining China’s J-10CE fighter aircraft, equipped with long-range PL-15 air-to-air missiles and supported by KJ-500 airborne early warning aircraft. Analysts say such a combination would significantly extend Algeria’s long-range strike capabilities and alter the military balance in North Africa. For Morocco, acquiring the twin-engine Rafale would complement its fleet of US-built F-16s, whose latest Block 72 version remains highly capable but leaves the Royal Moroccan Air Force heavily dependent on a single supplier. The report also noted continuing uncertainty over the planned transfer of Mirage 2000-9 aircraft from the United Arab Emirates because of instability in the Middle East, increasing pressure on Rabat to diversify its combat aircraft. The Rafale’s Meteor beyond-visual-range missile and SPECTRA electronic warfare suite would provide Morocco with advanced long-range engagement and electronic warfare capabilities while also offering access to a European weapons platform relatively independent of US systems, Defensa said. Nabil El Andaloussi, head of the Maghreb Centre for Strategic Research and Studies, said renewed discussion of a Rafale deal reflected the marked improvement in Moroccan-French relations following France’s support for Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara. “The return of negotiations indicates that relations have moved from rebuilding trust to consolidating a medium- and long-term strategic partnership,” Andaloussi told The Arab Weekly newspaper. He said any Rafale acquisition should not be interpreted as a departure from Morocco’s long-standing policy of diversifying its military suppliers. “For the past two decades Morocco’s defence doctrine has been based on avoiding dependence on a single ally,” he said, noting that the Royal Armed Forces already operate equipment from the United States, France, Turkey, China and other countries. Andaloussi said a Rafale purchase, if concluded, would strengthen Morocco’s strategic autonomy and military diplomacy rather than replace existing partnerships. He added that the success of any agreement would depend not only on the aircraft itself but also on financing terms, recalling that the 2007 negotiations ultimately collapsed over financial arrangements rather than technical considerations. The prospect of closer defence cooperation was reinforced two weeks ago during talks in Paris between Moroccan Defence Minister Abdellatif Loudyi and French Armed Forces Minister Catherine Vautrin. The two sides agreed to deepen defence ties, including cooperation on military procurement, industrial partnerships and defence capabilities, in line with the strategic interests of both countries. According to Defensa, Morocco could also seek to combine any Rafale purchase with broader agreements covering electronic intelligence, reconnaissance and intelligence cooperation with France and other partners. The report cautioned, however, that any deal would be expensive and complex, with overall costs extending well beyond the aircraft themselves to include weapons packages, training, simulators, spare parts, infrastructure and long-term maintenance. It added that, if an agreement were reached, the quickest option could involve supplying aircraft from French Air Force stocks or production slots originally allocated to France, although such a move would require a political decision in Paris and compensation for the French military.
2026-06-30 09:05:52
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