GIEWS Country Brief: Somalia 15-September-2026

Country: Somalia Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Please refer to the attached file. FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT Uncertain production prospects for 2026 Gu main season crops due to erratic rains and pests Livestock severely affected by water and pasture shortages Prices of cereals at high levels due to reduced market supplies and high fuel prices High levels and prevalence of food insecurity mainly due to climatic shocks Uncertain production prospects for 2026 Gu main season crops due to erratic rains and pests The 2026 main Gu season crops, normally accounting for about 60 percent of the country's total annual cereal output, were harvested in July. The April‐June Gu rainy season was characterized by below‐average rainfall amounts and by an erratic temporal and spatial distribution. The resulting moisture deficits adversely affected crop germination and development, and caused widespread wilting and stunted growth. According to FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI) , between 25 and 70 percent of the cropland was affected by severe drought in mid‐June in Lower and Middle Shabelle regions, the main maize producing areas, as well as in the sorghum belt in Bay Region. Subsequently, improved late‐season Gu rains and adequate Xagaa rains in July supported a partial crop recovery in several southern cropping areas, and as a result overall crop performance was mixed. In addition, crop production was affected by attacks of Quelea quelea (QQU) birds. The off‐season harvest recently started in the riverine areas along the Juba and Shabelle rivers and is expected to conclude by end‐September. Cereal production prospects are overall favourable following the adequate Xagaa rains, despite residual soil moisture deficits fromthe poor Gu rains, low river levels and high costs of pump irrigation due to high fuel prices. Pending the release of production estimates by the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU), prospects for the aggregate cereal output of the 2026 Gu and off‐season crops remain uncertain, as the adverse impact of poor Gu rains was partly offset by improved late‐season rains and favourable off‐season production prospects. Land preparation for the secondary 2026 Deyr season crops, for harvest in January 2027, is underway. According to the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) , there is high likelihood of well above‐average rainfall amounts between October and December 2026, likely benefiting yields of Deyr secondary season crops, but also heightening the risk of floods. Livestock severely affected by water and pasture shortages The April to June Gu rainy season had a poor performance also in central and northern pastoral areas. Significant rainfall deficits curtailed the regeneration of pasture and water resources, leaving rangeland conditions well below‐average at the onset of the ongoing July‐September Hagaa dry season. The resulting deterioration in livestock body conditions and the decline of milk production have negatively affected the diets and incomes of pastoralist households. Prices of cereals at high levels due to reduced market supplies and high fuel prices Prices of sorghum in Baidoa Market, located in the sorghum belt in Bay Region, and prices of maize in Qorioley Market, located in Lower Shabelle Region, the main maize producing area, increased between January and June 2026 by 25 and 70 percent, respectively, declining by 10 and 30 percent, respectively, in July with the Gu harvest. Prices of sorghum and maize in these markets in July 2026 were around twice their year‐earlier levels. Similarly, in the capital, Mogadishu, prices of sorghum and maize increased by 15‐20 percent between January and June 2026 and decreased by 5‐10 percent in July. Despite this recent easing, they remained 25‐45 percent higher year‐on‐year. The exceptionally high cereal prices mainly reflect reduced market supplies following consecutive poor harvests and conflict‐related trade disruptions. More recently, the surge in fuel prices associated with supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis has raised transport costs, further supporting cereal prices. In the capital, Mogadishu, diesel prices increased by 65 percent between January and April 2026. Although they declined by about 25 percent between April and July 2026, they remained approximately 25 percent higher than one year earlier. High levels and prevalence of food insecurity mainly due to climatic shocks According to an update of the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis , about 6 million people (over 30 percent of the population) were estimated to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse levels of acute food insecurity between April and June 2026. This figure includes about 1.9 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and represents an increase of about 30 percent compared to the corresponding period in 2025. A risk of Famine was identified in Burhakaba District in Bay Region under a plausible worst‐case scenario in which the failure of the Gu rains, combined with soaring food prices and inadequate humanitarian assistance, would have severely constrained food access and availability. The high levels of food insecurity reflect the cumulative impact of consecutive poor rainy seasons on crop and livestock production, compounded by high food prices and widespread insecurity.
2026-09-16 00:54:39