Iran regional escalation situation report - 30 mars 2026
Country: Iran (Islamic Republic of) Source: International Organization for Migration Please refer to the attached file. MOBILITY AND DISPLACEMENT DYNAMICS IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matix (DTM) is on the ground, actively tracking displacement and cross-border mobility to better understand how the crisis is impacting human mobility in the region. As a key operational enabler, DTM provides data to drive evidence-based responses and planning in coordination with local authorities and partners. All data provided in this snapshot, unless indicated otherwise, is provided through DTM. ISLAM IC REPUBLIC OF IRA N In the Islamic Republic of Iran, damage to 82,000 civilian infrastructure and growing risks to disruption of essential services are driving complex mobility patterns, with an estimated 180,000 people affected. As displacement spreads across more than 20 provinces with possible occurrences of secondary displacement, temporary accommodation, psychosocial support mechanisms, and public hotlines are being activated at scale by the Government, reflecting a rapidly intensifying demand for emergency and humanitarian services as vulnerabilities grow among conflict-affected households. These dynamics suggest a transition from short-term, reactive movement to more sustained displacement dynamics that could reshape regional mobility trends and heighten humanitarian needs. IRAQ – ISLAM IC REPUBLIC OF IRA N BORDER Across the Iraq–Iran border, three Border Crossing Points (BCPs) were fully open as of 26 March, enabling regular movements. Four BCPs in Sulaymaniyah governorate (the Kurdistan region of Iraq) were partially open; across these, commercial transit was permitted, while the return of Iraqi and Iranian nationals was limited to Bashmagh (carrying most of the crisis-related arrivals), Twila, and Broizkhan. Separately, an estimated 575 Third Country Nationals (TCNs) have returned to their home countries via the border crossings of Ibrahim Al-Khalil (Duhok Governorate, Iraq–Türkiye border) and Fishkabor (Duhok Governorate, Iraq–Syria border). SYRIAN ARA B REPUBLIC Between 02 and 23 March 2026, DTM Syria recorded 147,823 Syrian individuals crossing from Lebanon into the Syrian Arab Republic by land. The status of the PoEs between Syria and Lebanon remained unchanged; however, IOM noted a significant decrease in cross border movements compared to previous reporting on 10 March. LEBANON Following 16 March 2026, the Ministry of Social Affairs (MoSA) focuses on publishing the number of IDPs reported in collective sites. As of 23 March 2026, there are 134,601 IDPs in 660 collective sites. This excludes IDPs living with host communities and other settings. Round 2 of IOM Lebanon’s DTM, from 16 March, reports a total of 1,049,328 IDPs in the country (around 20% of the population). Current estimates indicate that over 40,000 migrants have been displaced, with many facing barriers to humanitarian assistance, including language, lack of information, and concerns over their migration status. ARMENIA-ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRA N BORDER Between 28 February and 10 March 2026, a total of 4,381 Iranian nationals entered the Republic of Armenia through the Agarak BCP. Overall, movements of Iranian nationals across the southern border remained steady throughout the reporting period, with no signs of large-scale arrivals or sudden fluctuations in cross-border activity. In addition to Iranian nationals, 549 TCNs entered Armenia through the Agarak crossing. AZERBAIJAN-ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRA N BORDER Between 28 February and 22 March 2026, a total of 2,921 individuals crossed from the Islamic Republic of Iran into Azerbaijan via the Astara border crossing. This includes 1,243 individuals from three countries (People’s Republic of China, Russian Federation, and Bangladesh). Overall, flows at the border with the Islamic Republic of Iran remain stable, with no indications of large-scale crossings. REPUBLIC OF TÜRKIYE – ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRA N BORDER Türkiye’s border with the Islamic Republic of Iran remains stable, with no indications of mass crossings. Movement is restricted to authorized travellers, including Turkish nationals, Iranian nationals with valid travel documents, and TCNs. Cross-border activity remains low and has declined significantly since the onset of the crisis. Flows through the Gürbulak, Kapıköy, and Esendere border gates remain orderly and two-way with movements driven primarily by routine or precautionary travel, rather than crisis-related displacement. TURKMENISTAN – ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRA N BORDER By 17 March 2026, over 500 TCNs evacuated from the Islamic Republic of Iran into Turkmenistan via four BCPs, including nationals from Canada, China, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Korea, the U.S.A, and Uzbekistan. AFGHANISTAN – ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRA N BORDER Border operations along the Afghanistan–Islamic Republic of Iran remain fully functional. Flows from the Islamic Republic of Iran to Afghanistan declined sharply by 59 per cent between 17 and 23 March (from 40,980 to 16,788) compared to the previous week (9–16 March 2026). Afghans returning from the Islamic Republic of Iran reported worsening conditions, including job losses, restricted access to workplaces, and impacts from the ongoing conflict, destroying structures. PAKISTAN – ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRA N BORDER Between 01 and 23 March 2026, a total of 7,603 individuals crossed from the Islamic Republic of Iran into Pakistan. Overall, week-on-week flows declined by 72% over the reporting period, compared to last week. All Iranian entrants hold valid documentation, such as visas, passports, or local movement passes.
2026-03-30 10:30:18