Sao Tome and Principe: Election Readiness - DREF Operation (MDRST003)

Country: Sao Tome and Principe Source: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies Please refer to the attached file. Description of the Event Date when the trigger was met 19-07-2026 What happened, where and when? São Tomé and Príncipe's presidential election, scheduled for 19 July 2026, is taking place in a more tense political context than previous polls, marked by the aftermath of the 2025 institutional crisis, as well as by electoral disputes amid allegations of fraud, socio-economic and political grievances, and calls for violent gatherings that have already resulted in incidents of violence during the campaign phase. The 2025 institutional crisis marked an important turning point and continues to poison the political climate, and fuel calls for reaction among party supporters. It stemmed from the dismissal of Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada by President Carlos Vila Nova, which deepened divisions within the ADI and reinforced political polarization. This polarization was amplified by the June 2026 rejection of Nino Monteiro's candidacy, fueling debate and disputes around the electoral process. Following these events, since mid-June 2026, information gathered by the National Society's branches shows the electoral context evolving from a low risk level to a moderate risk level, marked by calls for mobilization, hate speech, political clashes, and several incidents requiring police intervention. Although localized and limited in scale, these events demonstrate an escalating dynamic and the ability of certain influential political actors to rapidly mobilize their supporters, particularly young people. Persistent socio-economic frustrations including the rising cost of living, youth unemployment, power outages, and fuel shortages are also fueling public discontent and encouraging mobilization around political grievances. Based on both recent and historical events, and in consultation with various actors in the country and community groups, the current electoral context presents a moderate risk level higher than the low-risk scenario anticipated at the start of the year, but lower than the worst-case scenario observed in 2022. This justifies the need for the National Society to prepare and, in the event of an alert, to mount an immediate first-response intervention centered on the presidential phase of the elections, following the calendar below. For the 19 July 2026 presidential election, the main dates on the electoral calendar are as follows: ● 4 June 2026: deadline for filing and official registration of candidacies for the presidential election ● 4 July 2026: start of the presidential election campaign. ● 19 July 2026: presidential polling day (results date to be confirmed later) Regarding the legislative, regional, and local elections scheduled for September 2026, the main dates are: ● 10 September 2026: start of the election campaign ● 27 September 2026: legislative, regional, and local polling day Although the concentration of several electoral deadlines within a relatively short period could increase political mobilization and population movements linked to campaign activities and voting operations, the measures supported by this DREF are calibrated to a moderate-risk scenario and are, for now, limited to the presidential election. A revision of the DREF may follow depending on how this first phase evolves.
2026-07-17 00:55:48