Kenya: East Africa Seasonal Monitor: Deepening concerns across East Africa following severe June rainfall deficits and forecast below-average July - September rains, July 14, 2026

Countries: Kenya, Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Harvest has begun across select bimodal regions of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and parts of the Belg cropping areas of Ethiopia. Pasture and surface water conditions remain generally favorable across much of pastoral regions of Kenya, however, poor conditions are observed across much of Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia following in season rainfall deficits. Severe rainfall deficits have intensified moisture stress across unimodal cropping zones in Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, Sudan, and Kiremt rainfall regions of Ethiopia. Below-average agricultural production is increasingly likely across unimodal Kenya and Uganda, with reduced harvests also expected in parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia and agropastoral regions of northwestern Somalia. Strengthening El Niño and a forecast positive Indian Ocean Dipole increase the chances of extreme high rainfall during the October–December season.
2026-07-15 22:03:04