GIEWS Country Brief: Lesotho 24-August-2026

Country: Lesotho Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Please refer to the attached file. FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT Heavy rains curb 2026 cereal production Increased import needs in 2026/27 Food inflation stable, supported by low cereal prices Reduced harvest limits improvements in acute food insecurity in 2026 Heavy rains curb 2026 cereal production Harvesting of the 2026 main season cereal crops concluded in June. Although final production data will be available in October, preliminary estimates indicate that cereal production in 2026 is likely to fall to a level about half the previous five‐year average, mainly due to a smaller maize harvest, the country's key food staple, driven by reductions in both the area planted and yields. This is attributed to periods of heavy rainfall in November 2025 as well as in February and April 2026, which reportedly caused waterlogging stress and curbed yields. The impact was particularly severe in the key maize‐producing district of Berea, where yields were assessed to be roughly half of last year's level. Sorghum production is also assessed to have fallen markedly, while wheat, grown mainly during the winter months between May and September, is forecast at an average level in 2026. In total, production of maize, sorghum and wheat is provisionally estimated at a below‐average 42 000 tonnes in 2026. Looking ahead to the 2026/27 cropping season, forecast El Niño conditions raise the risk of a delayed onset of seasonal rains and below‐average rainfall amounts which could constrain cereal production in 2027. Increased import needs in 2026/27 Although the reduced domestic harvest in 2026 is expected to increase import requirements, the cereal supply outlook in 2026/27 remains favourable, supported by ample exportable surpluses in the region. The country is structurally dependent on imports, even in years of good harvest, and benefits from well‐established trade links with South Africa, its main grain supplier. Maize import requirements for the 2026/27 marketing year (April/March) are estimated at an above‐average 130 000 tonnes. Food inflation stable, supported by falling cereal prices According to the National Bureau of Statistics , annual food inflation held broadly steady through the first half of 2026, easing to just under 2 percent in June, down sharply from 6.5 percent a year earlier. The slowdown was mainly driven by the bread and cereals subindex, the largest component of the food inflation basket, which fell 6 percent year‐on‐year in June. The lower cereal prices largely reflect regional market dynamics rather than domestic production conditions. As the country is a net importer of grains, domestic cereal prices are closely linked to those in South Africa, where wholesale grain prices have fallen sharply in 2026. As a result, domestic cereal prices have declined despite the reduced local harvest. Meat prices moved in the opposite direction, rising by 8 percent in the year to June 2026. The increase largely reflects disease‐related supply disruptions, following outbreaks of foot‐and‐mouth disease in South Africa in 2025 and in Lesotho in 2026, which reduced cattle supply and pushed up regional meat prices. Reduced harvest limits improvements in acute food insecurity in 2026 According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis released in August 2026, about 234 000 people, 15 percent of the analyzed population, are currently facing IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and above levels of acute food insecurity. This number is projected to increase to 311 000 people (20 percent of the analysed population) during the October 2026‐March 2027 lean period. The expected deterioration reflects the combined effects of a below-average agricultural production, as well as reduced agricultural labour opportunities and household incomes. Looking ahead, the anticipated El Niño conditions and the associated risk of below‐average rainfall amounts could further constrain crop production in 2027 and rural employment opportunities, increasing pressure on households’ food access during the lean season.
2026-08-25 03:38:36