World: GEOGLAM Global Crop Monitor | No. 48 – October 2026

Country: World Source: GEOGLAM Crop Monitor Please refer to the attached file. Global Crop Overview Global crop conditions at the end of September are generally positive for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. Wheat conditions are generally favourable in the Northern Hemisphere as spring wheat harvesting progresses and winter wheat sowing begins. Winter wheat continues to develop in the Southern Hemisphere. Maize conditions are generally favourable, albeit mixed across parts of Asia, Europe, East Africa, and North America. Rice conditions are generally favourable; however, adverse weather is negatively impacting crops in parts of South and Southeast Asia. Soybean harvesting is ongoing in the Northern Hemisphere, with good yields expected in the US, while poor yields in Europe. Sowing is beginning in Brazil. The remaining crops are discussed in the CM4EW publication. Global Climate Influences Overview El Niño conditions are present and strengthening. The event will likely be very strong from September 2026 to January 2027 (> 90% chance, according to the September 2026 NOAA ENSO outlook) and rank as one of the strongest since 1950. El Niño conditions are forecast through April 2027 (80% chance). Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are forecast during October to December 2026. During late September through early October 2026, abnormally hot temperatures are forecast in active crop development areas of the southeastern United States, eastern Mexico, Central America, Haiti, central Brazil, East Africa, southwestern Iran, southern and northern Pakistan, southern and northern India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, southern Indonesia, and the Philippines. For further details on the Global Climate Influences and Regional Climate Outlooks section. WHEAT In North America , spring wheat harvesting in the US is wrapping up with above-average yields. The 2026/2027 winter wheat sowing is beginning; however, persistent heat and dryness in the Southern Plains are a concern. In Canada, winter wheat harvesting is wrapping up as the spring wheat harvest progresses, with above-average yields expected in Alberta. In Mexico, spring wheat conditions are favourable. In Europe , recent rainfall in Ukraine has improved soil moisture, supporting the sowing and emergence of the 2026/2027 winter wheat crop. The total sown area is expected to be lower than last year. In the Russian Federation, spring wheat harvesting continues under favourable conditions. Sowing of the 2026/2027 winter wheat crop is significantly behind the normal pace due to a mix of climatic and socioeconomic factors. In the United Kingdom, early sowing is just in the very early stages. In Türkiye, winter wheat sowing is beginning. In Central Asia , spring wheat harvesting is ongoing in Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, with concerns in eastern Kazakhstan, southern Tajikistan, and northern Kyrgyzstan due to dry conditions. Sowing of winter wheat is beginning in southern Kazakhstan. In MENA , sowing of winter wheat is beginning under favourable conditions in Iran. In Yemen, harvesting of spring wheat is wrapping up under poor conditions due to drought. In Sub-Saharan Africa , conditions in South Africa are favourable over the interior, following widespread above-normal late-summer and autumn rain. However, dry weather over the Western Cape and parts of KwaZulu-Natal has reduced yields. There is a large reduction in total sown area compared to last year. Winter wheat is under favourable conditions in Lesotho, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. In Ethiopia and Kenya, conditions are poor due to prolonged drought. In Oceania , conditions in Australia are exceptional in South Australia and Victoria; however, dryness has reduced prospects in Queensland and threatens yields in Western Australia. In South America , conditions in Argentina are favourable, with the crop primarily in the vegetative stages. The total sown area has decreased compared to last year. In Brazil, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with excessive rainfall reducing yield potential. There is a decrease in total sown area compared to last year. In Uruguay, conditions are favourable; however, sunlight has been reduced during September. In Chile, conditions are poor due to heavy rainfall and waterlogged soils.
2026-10-07 08:46:17